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Мартин Форд. Роботы наступают. Правда ли, что усердие и талант перестанут быть залогом жизненных достижений


НазваниеПравда ли, что усердие и талант перестанут быть залогом жизненных достижений
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258
David Von Drehle, «The Robot Economy», Time, September 9, 2013, pp.
44–45.


259
Andrew Harris, «Chicago Cabbies Sue Over Unregulated Uber, Lyft
Services»,
Bloomberg
News,
February
6,
2014,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-06/chicago-cabbies-sue-over- unregulated-uber-lyft-services.html

260
Статистические данные о потребительских расходах см.: Nelson D.
Schwartz, «The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World»,
New
York
Times,
February
2,
2014,
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-is-steadily- eroding-just-ask-the-business-world.html

261
Rob Cox and Eliza Rosenbaum, «The Beneficiaries of the Downturn», New
York
Times,
December
28,
2008,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/business/29views.html
. О знаменитых
«письмах о плутократии» также рассказывается в документальном фильме
Майкла Мура 2009 г. «Капитализм: история любви» (Capitalism: A Love
Story).

262
Barry Z. Cynamon and Steven M. Fazzari, «Inequality, the Great Recession,
and
Slow
Recovery»,
January
23,
2014,
http://pages.wustl.edu/files/pages/imce/fazz/cyn-fazz_consinequ_130113.pdf

263
Barry Z. Cynamon and Steven M. Fazzari, «Inequality, the Great Recession,
and
Slow
Recovery»,
January
23,
2014,
http://pages.wustl.edu/files/pages/imce/fazz/cyn-fazz_consinequ_130113.pdf

264
Barry Z. Cynamon and Steven M. Fazzari, «Inequality, the Great Recession,
and
Slow
Recovery»,
January
23,
2014,
http://pages.wustl.edu/files/pages/imce/fazz/cyn-fazz_consinequ_130113.pdf
, с.
18.

265
Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French, and David Benson, «Consumption and the Great Recession», National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working
Paper
No.
17688, issued in
December
2011,
http://www.nber.org/papers/w17688.pdf

266
Cynamon and Fazzari, «Inequality, the Great Recession, and Slow
Recovery», p. 29.

267
Derek Thompson, «ESPN President: Wage Stagnation, Not Technology, Is the Biggest Threat to the TV Business», The Atlantic, August 22, 2013,
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/08/espn-president-wage- stagnation-not-technology-is-the-biggest-threat-to-the-tv-business/278935/

268
Jessica Hopper, «Waiting for Midnight, Hungry Families on Food Stamps
Give Walmart 'Enormous Spike'», NBC News, November 28, 2011,
http://rockcenter.nbcnews.com/_ews/2011/11/28/9069519-waiting-for-midnight- hungry-families-on-food-stamps-give-walmart-enormous-spike

269
Источник данных: База данных по экономической статистике
Федеральной резервной системы (Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED),
Федеральный резервный банк Сент-Луиса: прибыль корпораций после уплаты налогов (без IVA и CCAdj) с учетом сезонных колебаний [CP] и розничные продажи: всего (кроме продуктов питания) [RSXFS];
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP/
;
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSXFS/
; по состоянию на
29.04.2014.

270
Joseph E. Stiglitz, «Inequality Is Holding Back the Recovery», New York
Times,
January
19,
2013,
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/inequality-is-holding-back-the- recovery

271
Вашингтонский центр равного роста (Washington Center for Equitable
Growth), интервью с Робертом Солоу, 14.01.2014, см. видеоролик:
http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/01/14/1472/our-bob-solow-equitable-growth- interview-tuesday-focus-january-14-2014

272
Paul Krugman, «Inequality and Recovery», New York Times (The
Conscience of a
Liberal blog),
January
20,
2013,
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/20/inequality-and-recovery/

273
См., например: Krugman's «Cogan, Taylor, and the Confidence Fairy»,
New York Times (The Conscience of a Liberal blog), March 19, 2013,
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/cogan-taylor-and-the-confidence- fairy/

274
Paul Krugman, «How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?», New York Times
Magazine,
September
2,
2009,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html

275
John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and
Money (London: Macmillan, 1936), ch. 21; книга доступна в Интернете по адресу: http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300071h/chap21.html

276
См. подробнее о производительности в США в пресс-релизе Бюро трудовой статистик
США от
06.03.2014:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

277
Lawrence Mishel, «Declining Value of the Federal Minimum Wage Is a
Major Factor Driving Inequality», Economic Policy Institute, February 21, 2013,
http://www.epi.org/publication/declining-federal-minimum-wage-inequality/

278
Eric Schlosser, Fast Food Nation: The Dark Side of the All-American Meal
(New York: Harper, 2004), p. 66.

279
Emmanuel Saez, «Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the
United States», University of California, Berkeley, September 3, 2013,
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf

280
Andrew G. Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry, «Inequality and Unsustainable
Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?», International Monetary Fund, April 8,
2011,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/sdn1108.pdf

281
Andrew G. Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry, «Warning! Inequality May Be
Hazardous to Your Growth», iMFdirect, April 8, 2011, http://blog- imfdirect.imf.org/2011/04/08/inequality-and-growth/

282
Ellen Florian Kratz, «The Risk in Subprime», CNN Money, March 1, 2007,
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/magazines/fortune/subprime.fortune/index.htm?
postversion=2007030117

283
Senior Supervisors Group, «Progress Report on Counterparty Data»,
January
15,
2014,
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/banking/2014/SSG_Progress_Report_on_Counterparty_January2014.pdf

284
Noah Smith, «Drones Will Cause an Upheaval of Society Like We Haven't
Seen in 700 Years», Quartz, March 11, 2014, http://qz.com/185945/drones-are- about-to-upheave-society-in-a-way-we-havent-seen-in-700-years

285
Barry Bluestone and Mark Melnik, «After the Recovery: Help Needed»,
Civic Ventures, 2010, http://www.encore.org/files/research/JobsBluestonePaper3-
5-10.pdf

286
Andy Sharp and Masaaki Iwamoto, «Japan Real Wages Fall to Global
Recession Low in Abe [Japanese Prime Minister] Risk», Bloomberg
Businessweek, February 5, 2014, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-
0 5/japan-real-wages-fall-to-global-recession-low-in-spending-risk.

287
См. подробнее о безработице среди молодых: Ian Sivera, «Italy's Youth
Unemployment at 42 % as Jobless Rate Hits 37-Year High». International
Business Times, January 8, 2014, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/italys-jobless-rate- hits-37-year-record-high-youth-unemployment-reaches-41-6-1431445
; а также:
Ian Sivera, «Spain's Youth Unemployment Rate Hits 57.7 % as Europe Faces a
'Lost Generation'», International Business Times, January 8, 2014,
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/spains-youth-unemployment-rate-hits-57-7-europe- faces-lost-generation-1431480

288
James M. Poterba, «Retirement Security in an Aging Society», National
Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 19930, issued in
February
2014, http://www.nber.org/papers/w19930
, а также http://www.nber.org/papers/w19930.pdf
. См. таблицу 9 на с. 21.

289
Там же., на основе таблицы 15 на с. 39; см. ряд под заголовком «Joint
& Survivor, Male 65 and Female 60, 100 % Survivor Income-Life Annuity». В
рамках альтернативного плана с 3 %-ным ежегодным повышением суммы такое домохозяйство получало бы всего лишь $3700 (или около $300 в месяц).

290
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The Future of Employment:
How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?», Oxford Martin School,
Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38,
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf

291
Данные по демографической ситуации в Китае см.: Deirdre Wang
Morris, «China's Aging Population Threatens Its Manufacturing Might», CNBC,
October 24, 2012, http://www.cnbc.com/id/49498720
и «World Population
Ageing 2013», United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population
Division, p.
32,
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WorldPopulationAgeing2013.pdf

292
Подробнее о норме сбережений в Китае (которая, как уже было сказано, превышает 40 %) см.: Keith B. Richburg, «Getting Chinese to Stop
Saving and Start Spending Is a Hard Sell», Washington Post, July 5, 2012,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/getting-chinese-to-stop- saving-and-start-spending-is-a-hard- sell/2012/07/04/gJQAc7P6OW_story_1.html
, и «China's Savings Rate World's
Highest»,
China
People's
Daily,
November
30,
2012,
http://english.people.com.cn/90778/8040481.html

293
Mike Riddell, «China's Investment/GDP Ratio Soars to a Totally
Unsustainable 54.4 %. Be Afraid», Bond Vigilantes, January 14, 2014,
http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2014/01/24/chinas-investmentgdp-ratio- soars-to-a-totally-unsustainable-54-4-be-afraid/

294
Dexter Robert, «Expect China Deposit Rate Liberalization Within Two
Years, Says Central Bank Head», Bloomberg Businessweek, March 11, 2014,
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-11/china-deposit-rate- liberalization-within-two-years-says-head-of-chinas-central-bank

295
Shang-Jin Wei and Xiaobo Zhang, «Sex Ratios and Savings Rates:
Evidence from
'Excess
Men' in
China»,
February
16,
2009,
http://igov.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Shang-Jin.pdf

296
Caroline Baum, «So Who's Stealing China's Manufacturing Jobs?»,
Bloomberg News, October 14, 2003, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=newsarchive&sid=aRI4bAft7Xw4

297
Подробнее о связи инвестиций и бизнес-циклов см.: Paul Krugman,
«Shocking Barro», New York Times (The Conscience of a Liberal blog),
September 12, 2011, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/shocking- barro/

298
Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, and Frank Wilczek,
«Stephen Hawking: 'Transcendence Looks at the Implications of Artificial
Intelligence – But Are We Taking AI Seriously Enough? '», The Independent,
May 1, 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking- transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we- taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html

299
Баррат Д. Последнее изобретение человечества. – М.: Альпина нон- фикшн, 2015.

300
Yann
LeCun,
Google+
Post,
October
28,
2013,
https://plus.google.com/+YannLeCunPhD/posts/Qwj9EEkUJXY

301
Gary Marcus, «Hyping Artificial Intelligence, Yet Again», New Yorker
(Elements blog),
January
1,
2014,
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/01/the-new-york-times- artificial-intelligence-hype-machine.html

302
Vernor Vinge, «The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era», NASA VISION-21 Symposium, March 30–31, 1993.

303
Vernor Vinge, «The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era», NASA VISION-21 Symposium, March 30–31, 1993.

304
Robert M. Geraci, «The Cult of Kurzweil: Will Robots Save Our Souls?»,
USC
Religion
Dispatches,
http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/culture/4456/the_cult_of_kurzweil%3A_will_robots_save_our_souls/

305
«Noam Chomsky: The Singularity Is Science Fiction!» (interview),
YouTube,
October
4,
2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=0kICLG4Zg8s#t=1393

306
Цит. по: IEEE Spectrum, «Tech Luminaries Address Singularity»,
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech-luminaries-address- singularity

307
Цит. по: IEEE Spectrum, «Tech Luminaries Address Singularity»,
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech-luminaries-address- singularity

308
James Hamblin, "But What Would the End of Humanity Mean for Me?",
The
Atlantic,
May
9,
2014,
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/05/but-what-does-the-end-of- humanity-mean-for-me/361931/

309
Gary Marcus, «Why We Should Think About the Threat of Artificial
Intelligence»,
New
Yorker
(Elements blog),
October
24,
2013,
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/why-we-should- think-about-the-threat-of-artificial-intelligence.html

310
P. Z. Myers, «Ray Kurzweil Does Not Understand the Brain», Pharyngula
Science
Blog,
August
17,
2010,
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/08/17/ray-kurzweil-does-not-understa/

311
Barrat, Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the
Human Era, pp. 7-21.

312
Richard Feynman, «There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom», lecture at
CalTech,
December
29,
1959; см. полный текст:
http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/feynman.html

313
Подробнее о финансировании нанотехнологий на федеральном уровне см.: John F. Sargent Jr., «The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Overview,
Reauthorization, and Appropriations Issues», Congressional Research Service,
December 17, 2013, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34401.pdf

314
K. Eric Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology
Will Change Civilization (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013), p. 205.

315
K. Eric Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology
Will Change Civilization (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013), p. 205.

316
K. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology
(New York: Anchor Books, 1986, 1990), p. 173.

317
Bill Joy, «Why the Future Doesn't Need Us», Wired, April 2000,
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

318
«Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley Make the Case For and Against
'Molecular Assemblers'», Chemical and Engineering News, December 1, 2003,
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html

319
Сайт
Institute of
Nanotechnology:
http://www.nano.org.uk/nano/nanotubes.php

320
Luciana Gravotta, «Cheap Nanotech Filter Clears Hazardous Microbes and
Chemicals from Drinking Water», Scientific American, May 7, 2013,
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cheap-nanotech-filter-water/

321
Drexler, Radical Abundance, pp. 147–148.

322
Drexler, Radical Abundance, с. 210.

323
Интервью Уолтера Кронкайта с Джоном Кеннеди 2 сентября 1963 г.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsplVYbB7b8 8:00. Кеннеди начинает говорить о безработице приблизительно на 8-й минуте видеоролика.

324
«Skill Mismatch in Europe», European Centre for the Development of
Vocational
Training,
June
2010,
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/Files/9023_en.pdf?
_ga=1.174939682.1636948377.1400554111

325
Jock Finlayson, «The Plight of the Overeducated Worker», Troy Media,
January 13, 2014, http://www.troymedia.com/2014/01/13/the-plight-of-the- overeducated-worker/

326
Jin Zhu, «More Workers Say They Are Over-Educated», China Daily,
February
8,
2013, http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-
02/08/content_16213715.htm

327
Hal Salzman, Daniel Kuehn, and B. Lindsay Lowell, «Guestworkers in the
High-Skill U. S. Labor Market», Economic Policy Institute, April 24, 2013,
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp359-guestworkers-high-skill-labor-market- analysis/

328
Steven Brint, «The Educational Lottery», Los Angeles Review of Books,
November 15, 2011,
http://lareviewofbooks.org/essay/the-educational-lottery

329
Nicholas Carr, «Transparency Through Opacity» (blog), Rough Type, May
5, 2014, http://www.roughtype.com/?p=4496

330
Erik Brynjolfsson, «Race Against the Machine», presentation to the
President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), May 3,
2013,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/PCAST_May3_Erik%20Brynjolfsson.pdf p. 28.

331
Claire Cain Miller and Chi Birmingham, «A Vision of the Future from
Those Likely to Invent It», New York Times (The Upshot), May 2, 2014,
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/05/02/upshot/FUTURE.html

332
F. A. Hayek, Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 3: The Political Order of a Free People (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1979), pp. 54–55.

333
F. A. Hayek, Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 3: The Political Order of a Free People (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1979), с. 55.

334
John Schmitt, Kris Warner, and Sarika Gupta, «The High Budgetary Cost of
Incarceration», Center for Economic and Policy Research, June 2010,
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf

335
John G. Fernald and Charles I. Jones, «The Future of US Economic
Growth», American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 104, no. 5 (2014):
44–49, http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.5.44

336
Sam Peltzman, «The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation», Journal of
Political
Economy
83, no.
4
(August
1975),
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1830396?
uid=3739560&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21103816422091

337
Hanna Rosin, «The Overprotected Kid», The Atlantic, March 19, 2014,
http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/03/hey-parents-leave-those- kids-alone/358631/

338
«Improving Social Security in Canada, Guaranteed Annual Income: A
Supplementary
Paper»,
Government of
Canada,
1994,
http://www.canadiansocialresearch.net/ssrgai.htm

339
См. анализ расходов и возможных исключений из программы: Danny
Vinik, «Giving All Americans a Basic Income Would End Poverty», Slate,
November
17,
2013,
http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2013/11/17/american_basic_income_an_end_to_poverty.html

340
Noah Smith, «The End of Labor: How to Protect Workers from the Rise of
Robots»,
The
Atlantic,
January
14,
2013,
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-end-of-labor-how-to- protect-workers-from-the-rise-of-robots/267135/

341
Nelson D. Schwartz, «217,000 Jobs Added, Nudging Payrolls to Levels
Before the
Crisis»,
New
York
Times,
June
6,
2014,
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/07/business/labor-department-releases-jobs- data-for-may.html

342
Shawn Sprague, «What Can Labor Productivity Tell Us About the U. S.
Economy?», US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Beyond the Numbers 3, no. 12 (May
2014), http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-3/pdf/what-can-labor-productivity- tell-us-about-the-us-economy.pdf

343
National Climate Assessment, «Welcome to the National Climate
Assessment», Global Change. gov, n.d.,
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

344
Stephen Lacey, «Chart: 2/3rds of Global Solar PV Has Been Installed in the
Last
2.5
Years»,
GreenTechMedia.com,
August
13,
2013,
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/chart-2-3rds-of-global-solar-pv- has-been-connected-in-the-last-2.5-years

345
Lauren Feeney, «Climate Change No Problem, Says Futurist Ray
Kurzweil»,
The
Guardian,
February
21,
2011,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/feb/21/ray-kurzweill-climate- change

346
«Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans' Global Warming
Beliefs and Attitudes in April 2013», Yale Project on Climate Change Notes to
Conclusion Communication/George Mason University Center for Climate
Change
Communication, http://environment.yale.edu/climate- communication/files/Climate-Beliefs-April-2013.pdf

347
Rebecca Riffkin, «Climate Change Not a Top Worry in U. S.», Gallup
Politics, March 12, 2014, http://www.gallup.com/poll/167843/climate-change- not-top-worry.aspx
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